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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.